Republicans:
1. Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)A Republican from Mass., and a 4-year Governor (outgoing January 2007) at that. Such a combination seems hard to beat on paper for nomination potential. Although a fairly conservative candidate with broad appeal, polls suggest his particular
faith could hurt him some with the masses and/or evangelicals.
2.
Sen. John McCain (AZ)
Media darling with independent/crossover appeal. Actually a little more conservative overall than he gets credit for, but big questions still surround whether the conservative base could finally embrace his candidacy in 2008. Biggest issue would be potential mud-slinging through the primary process, but he's likely much more immune from such these days (namely in comparison to 2000). Would become the oldest President upon election, surpassing Reagan's 1980 inauguration by 3 years.
3. (
PG Sleeper Pick)
Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)
Political Gyre likes his upside as a good overall pick for the Republicans. Why not another Governor from Arkansas, with the same hometown (Hope, AR) nonetheless!?! Huckabee has been Governor since 1996. The former Baptist minister with a socially conservative record will certainly appeal to the Evangelical base, but he may be looked at as too conservative by the middle.
4.
Former NYC Mayor Rudy GiulianiVery much an appealing candidate to the masses post-9/11, but even so, there's considerable concerns regarding his ability to get the Republican nomination. Left-leanings on social issues (abortion, gay marriage, illegal immigration) would cause reservations with the conservative base, while prior marriage/mistress issues could make things ugly for him leading up to the primaries. If he could survive the nomination gauntlet, Democrats would likely have trouble keeping him from the Presidency.
5.
Gov. George Pataki (NY)
Not exactly sure where he fits in, but any three-term Republican from New York will always be in the mix. Given the NY factor and left-leaning social views, could he and
Giuliani work against each other? He's safer than Giuliani in some respects, but clearly doesn't have the same mass appeal.
6. Sen. Sam Brownback (KS)
One of the most socially conservative options for the Republicans. Uphill battle for him on the national scene and mainstream/middle-of-the-road voters. Political Gyre will try not to hold his prior position on anti-NWS legislation against him.
7. U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA)
Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee with a strong military/anti-illegal immigration record. A Republican from CA is always a plus on the political scene. Could be a good VP choice for the likes of Romney, McCain, or Giuliani.
8. Former Speaker of he House Newt Gingrich (GA)
Is he back? While yet to officially say, his television/book involvement as a political commentator since leaving office has given rise to speculation he'll run in 2008. Unfavorable opinion with the left/middle from the Clinton era will hurt him.
9. (PG Overhyped Alert) Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice
While many on the right often toss out here name, her only shot is as a VP candidate to help stabilize a fringe candidate, but even that is unlikely.
10. Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE)
Long-shot candidate. As a Vietnam veteran, too much in the shadow of John McCain. Some Republicans hold his harsh Bush-Iraq policy comments against him.
Outside Looking In:
Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (WI), Representative Tom Tancredo (CO)
No Chance:
VP Dick Cheney, Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Rick Santorum, Sen. Bill First
Sen. (and former Gov.) George Allen (VA)
Perceived racist comments caught on video during the 2006 campaign will likely considerably hinder an otherwise potential top-tier Republican candidate. Recently stated he will not be seeking nomination in 2008.
Democrats:
1. Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY)
Hard to not call her the leading candidate for the Democrats. Almost goes without saying that Sen. Clinton is a very polarizing figure. Unlike some of the Republican candidates, her trouble wouldn't be with the nomination, rather whether she could survive the general election and "anti-Hillary" sentiment. While not a likely scenario for her, the safest move for her might be to be a VP running mate with a hopeful run in 4 or 8 years.
2. Former Sen. John Edwards (NC)
Believe it or not, it's not just Hillary vs. Obama! Some controversial comments (stem cell research/Christopher Reeve and Mary Cheney) from the 2004 election could briefly haunt him, but the charisma and "sex appeal" and dynamic speaking ability of the former personal injury trial lawyer make him a 2008 front runner. His southern roots (NC and SC) further boost his nomination potential.
3. (PG Sleeper Pick) Retired General Wesley Clark
Believe it or not, it's not just Hillary vs. Obama - part 2! Issues regarding defense/Iraq would make him a very appealing President/VP option for the Democrats. His appeal in the southern states can only be matched by Edwards. While not yet committing to run in 2008, it seems probable he'll very much have a roll in the upcoming election. Alot may depend on Iraq developments over the next year, but look for him to become more politically prevalent into spring/summer 2007. He'll have the deep pockets available for a run, especially considering the strong support already shown by billionaire George Soros.
4. (PG Overhyped Alert) Sen. Barack Obama (IL)
Mass appeal candidate with strong charisma, reference his 2004 DNC keynote speech. Although comparisons are made, JFK he is not. While undoubtedly a media darling, his inexperience and liberal voting record will tend to marginalize him over time amongst the middle. In the end, Political Gyre believes his only real possibility is as a VP candidate - besides, no one with the middle name of Hussein will be elected U.S. President!
5. Sen. (and former Gov.) Evan Bayh (IN)
Relatively unknown in comparison to his other Democrat counterparts, but strong upside potential given his more moderate views and red state appeal. His grassroots campaign has seen him already spend alot of time in NH and IA this fall/winter. He could easily be a surprise in the NH/IA primaries. Could be an ideal VP candidate for Clinton or Edwards.
6. Gov. Bill Richardson (NM)
Solid VP candidate, especially if the Democrats feel the need to solidify the latino vote.
7. U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH)
His strong anti-Iraq war stance would likely boost him from an already respectable 2004 run for the Democratic nomination. However, in spite of a solid niche following, his clearly liberal positions will again marginalize him with the majority and be his downfall.
8. Sen. John Kerry (MA)
His own party really doesn't take him seriously as a candidate any more and the odds are considerably against him again receiving his party's nomination. Further tainted by a Bush joke gone awry, Kerry wasn't much of a factor in the 2006 elections.
9. Sen. Joseph Biden (DE)
Has served as Chairman for both the Senate's Foreign Relations and Judiciary committees. Already well-known and popular in the northeast U.S., his relatively more centrist positions will garner him appeal elsewhere.
10. Former VP Al Gore
Go away Al. Although he won the popular vote in 2000, but has really marginalized himself with his odd-beard hiatus, and more recently, his global warming book and movie. Political Gyre doesn't think he'll recover to be a legitimate player for the nomination. Along with Kerry, his presence probably only hurts the Democrats in 2008.
Outside Looking In:
Gov. Tom Vilsack (IA), Sen. Chris Dodd (CT), Sen. Russ Feingold (WI) - out for Pres., but possible VP candidate
No Chance:
Former President Bill Clinton, at least technically. Former Gov. Howard Dean